1.   In the 20th century India was an agricultural country with livable facilities mostly based on agriculture production with economic growth. In order to increase economic growth (GDP) it was felt that linking of rivers may give us more growth besides some growth through industries, and trade. Since the 90s the liberlisation of economic activity encouraged information technology (IT), mining, industries and other services. Now, the development in the 21st century has changed to services contributing to GDP upto 50-60% and industry about 25% and contribution of agriculture has come down to 15% in the last 2 to 3 decades. 2.   Now, we have to think of economic growth in a different manner and priorities. The present population is 1250 million people which are likely to stabilise 1500-1600 million by 2050. Since the GDP growth will depend mostly on services, with land and water being limited to the present position and with more pollution. In the present century, priority should be given to skills, education and technology. This would require creating jobs in this sector with less use of land and water for urbanisation, energy, transport of various kinds and improving socio-economic conditions for the whole population with reduced in-equalities and also taking care of ecology and environment. 3.   Since land and water have to be used together for creating new jobs, the proposed linking of rivers is not going to be helpful. The water already being used for irrigation and rainfed agriculture is already sufficient to produce 260 million tonnes of food. The ultimate requirement of about 350-400 million tonnes would be sufficient for the population in 2050 with improved agriculture technology and efficient use of water. 4.   Water is available basically from precipitation with monsoon conditions available all over India passing through with various types and uses of soil and various products. The climate change studies show that intensity of precipitation with space variation may also change in the next 30 years. The last study with regard to precipitation and its various uses was done and published by the National Commission on Agriculture (NCA) in 1975. This shows the amount of water available in rivers as surface flow, ground water storage and surface storage in small tanks and various sizes of dams. It is necessary to do this study before deciding priorities for the use of water for various purposes. With the new technology and reduction of cost for desalination, fresh water can also be available specially along the sea coast and some rural areas. 5.   The above reasoning gives enough idea that inter-linking of rivers is not going to be able to deal with the situation of floods and drought nor produce cheaper food and other means of rural development. The conversion of waste from agriculture, urbanisation and other activities in the rural areas can help by producing power, organic fertilizers and other products. This requires a different treatment of regulation and development of land and water for providing water and food security for the population of 1600 million by 2050 at much less cost and time. 6.   Now cheaper means of electricity through waste conversion, solar energy, wind power would give better self reliance even upto the last village. Water harvesting on every piece of land and roof along with the better use of ground water storage created specially in forest areas should be done. The use of forest areas for commercial purposes and excessive use of chemical fertilizers in irrigated areas has also reduced the infiltration rate for ground water recharge. It is suggested that the agency setup in 1980, namely National Water Development Agency under the Ministry of Water Resources be given the new task by making it a multi-disciplinary team. So that all conditions of land and water use and the actual requirements of the population can be considered at the same time, so that a balanced use of water and land with priorities for the next 30 years can be decided and monitored. Since all the states would have to be considered and there is competition between states and various stake holders, it may be better to locate it under the NITI Aayog.

Published December 20, 2016 12:02 by G N Kathpalia, Chairman, Alternative Futures