Forecasting of Extreme Rain cases like Uttarakhand June2013, J & K Flooding September 2014

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Weather Forecasting capability now has reached a stage where demand for early warnings for extreme weather events is on the rise. There is potential skill in the predictions while accurate and precise forecasts are still a challenge since the Meteorological infrastructure and technological know how is being upgraded in India.

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3 Answers

  1. Whether forecasting is based on probabilistic analysis based on historic data of different places. Result can improves installing proper density of weather (numbers) stations. probability can not be 100% that is also true. Now days we have powerful tool that is GIS and Remote sensing, we are always using this tool to save damages from disasters and this tool is very good result oriented, we have got results against many disasters, but problem is when cyclone starts then it can be sense and when that cyclone hits the surface that period(short period )we have for preparation of damage control. So, one is probability and one is physical sensing both have their limitations and advantages Here I agree with Jyoti's statement

  2. Focus must be on prevention of disasters caused by such events. An extreme weather event need not necessarily lead to a disaster. Accurate Weather Forecasting can only help if options to manage the effect of extreme weather are available.

  3. Emergency prepared manual for each district of India has to be prepared. The weather forecasting plays a major role. But somebody has to be assigned the specific duty to estimate the emergency of any kind and should be equipped with a standard Action Plan and Procedure to be followed. To whom he has to inform and what are the resources manual force, money and a list of officers/ officials to whom he has to inform in case of emergency. Every thing should be automatic. Once he assess the emergency, the message automatically goes to concerning officials and who in turn must take all possible measures to be adopted for the emergency. I do no think, such arrangement is available even in Delhi.